The start of the horse racing flat season is always an exciting time for fans and trainers alike. It actually kicks off late March with the Lincoln horse race at Doncaster, however, there's a noticeable pause before the Craven meeting at Newmarket, which doesn't quite make sense in the overall rhythm of the season. Karl Burke's recent comments in the Racing Post about revamping the start of flat season seems to make a lot of sense.
All that said, after yesterday's warm up (not quite so warm at Newmarket raceource in the spring!) the flat season truly gets underway today as the Craven meeting kicks into gear and the excitement for the season ahead really starts to build. All eyes are on the Guineas trials, where last season's talented young horses try to prove themselves worthy of competing in the prestigious 1000 and 2000 Guineas races in a little over two weeks.
In this blogpost let's take a look at the three main classic trial races over the next two days; as always from a trend perspective and let's see if we can dig out some value within the markets.
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1. Nell Gwyn Stakes (7f Grp3 3yo Fillies)
The premier 1000 Guineas trial takes place at a little after half past three this afternoon and it's no surprise that it's headed in the market by the two main stable organsiations in flat racing. Godolphin owned and Charlie Appleby trained Dance Sequence is as short as 8/13f at the head of the market, which is crazy short on what she's done so far. You can see why she is favourite having won the Group three Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket last October with the 4th place horse winning a Listed race earlier this season. On that run Bet365 actually have her as the market favourite for the 1000 Guineas. What am I missing here?!
She is a trend fit however, so it would be no surprise if she were to win but it's also just as possible that the hype machine has gone into full effect on practically day one of the flat season and Dance Sequence's bubble is about to be dramatically burst.
Market second favourite is the Ballydoyle owned, Aidan O'Brien trained Matrika who is currently a 20/1 shot for the 1000 Guineas which might speak volumes about her chances here. She doesn't meet the trends on account of racing three times already and not reaching the required rating. The key trend for this race is the following.
All 10 past winners of the Nell Gwyn were either officially rated 107+ (5) or had raced fewer than three times and won last time out (5).
Last season’s Nell Gwynn was quite considerably the worst renewal of the last 10 seasons and this years is only slightly better than that with no horse rated higher than 106 so we are looking for lightly raced horses with one or two career runs only to fit the trends.
Dance Sequence is one of only three horses that make that trend above. One other is 50/1 shot Katmandu who although needing a big jump up to take this from Kempton and Southwell all weather wins last season is worth a few pennies as a longshot.
The other one a lot more fanciable is 8/1 shot True Cyan. The last 3 fillies to win the Nell Gwyn with less than three runs under their belt had all seen a sight of the Newmarket track already, so True Cyan’s maiden win at Newmarket back in September has her right in the trend frame for this. This No Nay Never filly, owned by Hong Kong Racing looked promising on debut and that race might also be a decent maiden with the 2nd and 3rd both winning next time out.
2. Feilden Stakes (9f Listed 3yo)
In keeping with the theme for Wednesday, The Feilden Stakes, (more a trial I would suggest for the Derby or the French Derby than the 2000 Guineas in truth), is comfortably a below average renewal considering the last 10 years.
For eight years in a row it was won by the market first or second favourite. However the last two years have produced 22/1 and 15/2 winners. Subsequently with the renewal a poor one it might be worth having a deep look at this years lineup.
It’s interesting that French trainer Andre Fabre has brought over Narkez for this and he might be a warm favourite. In fact the race has an intriguing look to it, with Zetland Stakes second and Ballydoyle Justify colt Gasper De Lemos and the Autumn Stakes third (to Ancient Wisdom) Ambient Friendly in the lineup.
However as a betting heat, I’ve gone through the trends and too many qualify with several lightly raced potential improvers in there. It looks a minefield of a race and sometimes rather than go fishing for one, there are races that are simply just best avoided for punting purposes. This looks one of those races.
3. Craven Stakes (8f Grp3 3yo Colts)
Let's move quickly on to tomorrow and the big race of the whole meeting, the Craven Stakes. This looks a cracker of a renewal with all the big name trainers at the head of the market. Once again Charlie Appleby trains the market leader in Native Approach. This colt did not race as a juvenile which is a negative on 2000 Guineas trends and doesn't show up well here either with no horse from the last 20 winners debuting as a 3yo. The strength of that trend will get a test tomorrow, but it's not actually one that I currently have in the trend set. That said he is a negative on one trend and I'll come onto that below.
Andre Fabre sends over Alcantor who is the market second favourite and he brings Group one second form to the race. The strength of the Criterium International form in October last year took a hit when the winner Sunway could only finish next to last in his opening race of this season. It is very likely he was nowhere near 100% fitness however, but Alcantor's current Racing Post Rating figure is still a little low on the trends here.
The Dewhurst Stakes is the premier juvenile flat race of the season and its form will get a little test tomorrow, with the 3rd place, John & Thady Gosden trained colt Eben Shaddad lining up. He does have the Racing Post Rating and on paper looks sure to stay the distance with Galileo on the dam side. However he shows up negative on speed and COD dosage trends. His sire Calyx was a very fast Royal Ascot Coventry Stakes winner however whose career was ended prematurely by injury, so it will be intetesting to see how he gets on tomorrow. Additionally, being a new season sire, it might be worth forgiving the dosages trends and should the first two in the market not live up to expectations he looks the likley one to take advantage.
Aidan O'Brien's represtative is Dubawi colt Cambridge but the trainer is not known for targeting this race and has surprisingly never won it. Cambridge is not even entered for the 2000 Guineas and it would be a turn up if he were to win this. He does not make the trend set either.
On that note, let's take a look at those key trends for the Craven Stakes below.
All 12 past winners were either officially rated at least 112 (9), raced only once and won at Newmarket on similar ground conditions with min. RPR 85+ (2), or raced in a year(last year) where there was no rated horse as high as 112 (1).
Both Alcantor and Eben Shaddad are rated 112 this year and both qualify on that trend. There is only one other horse that would qualify and that's the once raced Jane Chapple-Hyam trained Sons and Lovers.
The trend that would eliminate Alcantor is the following.
All 12 past winners recorded a min. RPR of at least 109+ (10), or raced only once and won at Newmarket on similar ground conditions with min. RPR 85 (2).
20/1 shot Sons And Lovers is a very interesting alternative to Eben Shaddad to spring a Craven Stakes shock tomorrow. A once raced winner at Newmarket, therefore having already had a sight of the track is the profile of past lightly raced winners Skardu and Eminent. This Study Of Man colt on trends also has the right mix of speed and stamina for this race. A deeper look at that maiden also highlights that the 2nd, 3rd and 4th all won next time out. He was recently cut into 40/1 for the 2000 Guineas after pleasing Jane Chapple-Hyam in his first proper work out of the year.
Whilst it's a big jump up if he were to win tomorrow, his odds reflect that, but are also in my opinion inflated because of the low profile nature of the trainer.
Good luck for this week and if you like this blog post, be sure to subscribe by entering your email address in the box below. That way you'll never miss a post.