One thing seems certain following the launch of the flat season this week at the Craven meeting at Newmarket racecourse. It appears there are more horses needing their first runs than the typical average for this time of year.
Observing the horses at Newmarket, there was a noticeably uneven fitness level among them, suggesting that the form of many races this week might not be entirely reliable moving forward. The trainers of both trial winners, Pretty Crystal and Haatem, didn't exude confidence immediately after the race regarding their respective Guineas chances. I've always believed you can learn a lot from trainers' immediate post-race interviews.
In terms of trends, the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-placed horses were trend fits in the Nell Gwyn, and the 3rd-placed horse fit the trend in the Craven. Notably, there were some big-priced placed horses, at 40/1 and 28/1 so a tidy profit was had if choosing to back Each Way. Nonetheless, both winners were a surprise result in terms of trends.
Moving onto today's two significant trial races at Newbury, starting with the Fred Darling Stakes for fillies, this blog will guide you through the key trends and the horses that align best with them.
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1. Fred Darling Stakes (7f Grp3 3yo Fillies)
A very open looking trial race with the quality significantly lower than the ten year average, the Fred Darling Stakes historically has been less of a pointer towards the 1000 Guineas than the Nell Gwyn earlier this week.
Additionally, if you consider the highest rated in the field, Relief Rally fails a significant trend and does not look like a certain stayer and that the current market second favourite Regal Jubilee won last year over a mile on heavy ground and now drops back to 7f on faster ground; then the race looks wide open presenting us with a potential big value chance.
All 10 past winners of the Fred Darling had a joint sire index of at least 15.2
Last years Royal Ascot Queen Mary second and York Lowther winner, Relief Rally is a nice filly and it will be interesting to see how she develops this season. However, with a joint sire index of only 13.7, this 7f is going to stretch her early on in her season. Without an entry for the 1000 Guineas and running as far as this first time out suggests to me that she might not be showing the speed at home this year that she showed on the track last year. Either that or she is so fit and well that they believe she might be ahead of the other fillies, but I can't entertain her over 7f.
Cheveley Park owned Frankel filly, Regal Jubille won the Montrose Stakes at the back end of the season, a race over a mile and on heavy ground. This drop back to 7f could be too sharp for her considering juveniles that are able to win at a mile on heavy ground, in theory will be better over further than a mile this season. This also reflects in her COD dosage figure of -0.10 and that would fail the following trend.
All 10 past winners had a postive COD Dosage figure
The following two trends on ratings and form would rule out Star Music, the once raced Elmalka and outsider Topanga, which leaves us with just one horse left.
All 10 past winners, either achieved a min. RPR of at least 97 (6), or had raced fewer than 3 times with an RPR of 103+ or TS of 70+ and won last time out (4)
All 10 past winners, either raced fewer than 4 times (7) or were officially rated at least 105 (3)
What we said above regarding Regal Jubilee, we could also say the same for Folgaria, who won her final start of the season over 8f on soft ground. Perhaps this 7f test might be too sharp for her, but her dosage suggests she has a lot more speed in her locker than Regal Jubilee might have.
Folgaria fits all other trends, is an unpenalised Group two winner and unbeaten in five starts. It's hard to see why she's higher up the betting here. Perhaps doing all her racing so far in Italy might not stack up in this British company but if she travels over okay and adapts well, then she's in with a good chance in this lineup.
2. Greenham Stakes (7f Grp3 3yo Colts)
Hmm, how can I say this without being too negative, but quality wise, what a terrible renewal of the Greenham this is! The way I like to measure the quality of the field is to take the average of the top 3 officially rated horses, in this case that's 106.7. The average over the last ten seasons is 112.1, making it signifcantly lower than where the race usually is standard wise.
There was a similar lineup in 2017 with an average rating of just 106. That year the once raced Barney Roy prepelled himself onto the scene to take the race. He went on of course to be second in the 2000 Guineas before going one better to win the Group one St. James Palace at Royal Ascot a few weeks later. Accordingly, it might be worth having a good look into the lightly raced horses in this years lineup especially (as in the preceeding Fred Darling Stakes), the highest rated in the field is going to fail the following joint sire index trend.
All 12 past winners of the Greenham Stakes had a joint sire index of at least 16.2 (10) or were a dual Group one winner at 6f (1) or raced in a year with no trend qualifiers (1).
The dual Group one winner in that lineup was Perfect Power, who had a joint sire index of just 14.2. Army Ethos the horse in question as the highest rated in the field has a joint sire index of 14.4 but a dual Group one winner he is not, so it's a big ask.
Interesting that Richard Hannon Jnr's Son is in the race, (that is the horse rather than his child!) as it will give the Royal Lodge form (the race that Ghostwriter won) a little test. Son finished 5th in that but trend wise it suggests we should be looking for lightly raced horses now and the following trend rules out half the field, including Son.
All 12 past winners were officially rated at least 108 (10) or raced fewer than four times (2)
Of the remaining four horses, three of those would also fail the joint sire index trend, leaving just one horse El Bodon until you realise that he would fail the following two trends and we are left with no trend qualifiers for the Greenham for the second time in five years.
All 12 past winners either recorded an RPP of at least 105 (11) or raced only once (1)
All 12 past winners either ran over a distance of 7 or 8F last time out (10) or ran in a 6F Group 1 (2)
There are two options when left when faced with a race with no trend qualifiers. Either give up and move onto the next race or relax some of the trends to get the next best in.
It is tempting to do the latter here when you consider the two horses that won within the last twelve years with a joint sire index less than 16.2 had both recorded an RPR of at least 109 as a juvenile. In other words they were already high quality colts. On juvenile form it does not appear that we have any such colt in this lineup this year outside perhaps Army Ethos who recorded 107 for his second place in last June's Coventry Stakes. His joint sire index is just too low for me to consider him though.
Zoum Zoum comes into the race as a listed winner, with an RPR of 104, but you really have to doubt the quality considering both his last two wins were on Heavy (over 7f) and his joint sire index is only 15.2 which doesn't really add up on the trends. It could just be that he's a mudlark which happens a lot and he was weak in the betting yesterday.
Mister Sketch has form with Haatem from last seasons Mill Reef so might have a good chance and his joint sire index is 15.6 so getting a little closer. It's a negative that he ran over 6f last time out though as it is for El Bodon who is the most lightly raced in the field, but with two runs he might not have the sudden improvement level he will need that sometimes seems to come from just once raced horses.
So really on trends that probably leads us all back to Son as the closest trend fit. He's exposed with 6 runs, but that is the only negative and exposed horses have actually been the winning the Craven trials this week. Additonally trainer Richard Hannon Jnr is having a storming week, similar to last year during this first week of the flat season, so Son would probably be the closest trend fit in this lineup. Annoyingly he was priced up as big as 20/1 yesterday, but still 7/1 looks a decent shout.
All things told, I don't believe anything is going to change the markets too much for the Guineas weekend from today's trial races
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