Flat racing enthusiasts like us have been eagerly awaiting this weekend, and it's finally here: Guineas weekend 2024! The excitement kicks off with the 2000 Guineas, a race that will set the tone for the entire season. City of Troy's performance could either disappoint those who backed him beforehand, shaking up the classic colts scene for the summer, or send fans into a frenzy if he wins, sparking endless summer debates over his greatness compared to Frankel. Then, on Sunday, we have the 1000 Guineas, featuring 16 runners, competitive as always. But let's not overlook the significance of an Epsom Oaks trial on Sunday, the Pretty Polly Stakes, which we'll examine closely in this blog post.
The Pretty Polly Stakes has a history of producing Epsom Oaks winners. Ralph Beckett's Talent in 2013 and John Gosden's impressive filly Taghrooda the very next year are two of the most recent winners. This year, Ralph Beckett doesn't have a runner in the race, but John Gosden, now along with his son Thady of course, sends out two contenders in an attempt to replicate Taghrooda's success from a decade ago. The race has a nice looking feel to it with Godolphin represented by Winter Snowfall who beat the recently impressive novice winner Danielle earlier this season and current market favourite at the time of writing, Juddmonte's Andrew Balding trained Kalpana. On closer inspectation of the race however, neither of those two fillies are entered at Epsom at this stage, although an impressive victory on Sunday would leave open the option of supplementing of course.
When we sift through the trends, which admittedly aren't the strongest for this race so keep stakes sensible, we're narrowed down to just one horse, which is always a great place to end up.
Pretty Polly Stakes (10f Listed 3yo Fillies) - Trends
Although it's an intriguing race, it may not feature the strongest field ever, which is somewhat of an early season trend in itself. Five horses, including Friendly Soul, Winter Snowfall, and Strutting, are ruled out based on the following trends below. Whether Winter Snowfall can replicate Danielle's success with a significant improvement next time out remains uncertain. Additionally, trainer Charlie Appleby had three short-priced horses finish last yesterday.
All 10 past winners of the Pretty Polly Stakes had raced between 1-3 times (7) or recorded a minimum RPR of at least 93 (3).
All 10 past winners of the Pretty Polly Stakes had recorded a minimum RPR of at least 82
When considering sire index trends, both Lunar Eclipse and Carolina Reaper fail this trend.
9 of the last 10 past winners of the Pretty Polly Stakes had a joint sire index no lower than 17.1
That leaves market favourite Kalpana as the only trend fit. This horse has course and distance form after impressively winning last time out on the Rowley course by ten lengths at the Craven meeting earlier this spring.
Worth noting that although both the Gosden's Friendly Soul and Strutting also fail dosage trends, Winter Snowfall is a very close fit to the trends only just missing out with an RPR of 80. I wouldn't put you off backing her, but Kalpana gets my vote for tomorrow.
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